Republican operatives in Texas warned that nominating state Attorney General Ken Paxton would be akin to political suicide.
They said that Paxton’s laundry list of personal shortcomings made him less electable than longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn, leading them to practically beg Republican voters not to choose Paxton as their nominee.
Of course, the voters didn’t listen, choosing instead to follow the direction of President Donald Trump, who backed Paxton at the eleventh hour.
Now, with less than six weeks until Election Day, it turns out that those Republican strategists were right. Polling shows Paxton losing to Democratic candidate James Talarico, with GOP voters saying they simply cannot vote for someone as corrupt as Paxton.
Just take a look at the findings from a New York Times focus group of 12 Texans who voted for Trump in 2024.
All of the six Republicans in the group said that Paxton was “bad,” “amoral,” “morally corrupt,” “disgusting,” a “womanizer” and a “crook.” The Democrats and independents on the panel used the same words to describe him.
“It was really crazy that Trump stood behind Paxton. I’m like, what in the world?” Hitesh, a 57-year-old Republican, told the Times. “And he just swung away from John Cornyn, and at the last minute. It was done. And now, since my time in Texas, I’ve seen him do a pretty good job since he’s been here. And going with a candidate that has such a shady background, I’m like, what the heck?”
Republicans are spending millions of dollars to try to change their fortunes in Texas, putting out bigoted and false attack ads against Talarico.
But the ads are coming late in the cycle, after Talarico already spent his own millions on ads that both detailed Paxton’s odious corruption and morally bankrupt personal conduct, all while painting himself as a proud Texan with a squeaky clean background.
Related | GOP is burning cash in Texas Senate race—for naught
This Talarico ad, which splices up footage of one of his speeches, succinctly lays out Paxton’s corrupt ways.
“Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in Texas,” Talarico says. “Since taking office, Ken Paxton’s net worth has increased 7,000%. He now owns 15 homes, while most Texans can’t afford one. Ken Paxton was impeached by his own party for taking bribes from wealthy donors while blocking overtime pay for Texas workers and gutting our healthcare. We cannot afford Ken Paxton’s corruption.”
Talarico’s message is now baked in, and it’s why the GOP’s alarmist and absurd super PAC ads just aren’t moving the needle.
What’s more, with polls showing that political corruption is a top issue for voters this cycle—behind inflation and the cost of living—Paxton is the exact wrong candidate at the exact wrong time.
Indeed, a super PAC supporting Talarico released an ad featuring a former Texas GOP lawmaker who supported impeaching Paxton, who won’t be getting his vote this fall. It’s that kind of permission structure that is putting in a play a state as red as Texas.
Worse still for Republicans is that Paxton keeps providing new fodder for Talarico. On Wednesday, new audio was unearthed in which Paxton said that the Uvalde school shooting was a “plan” by “God.”
Yikes.
“They picked the wrong candidate,” Sebastian, a 50-year-old independent, told the Times. “If they picked anybody else, they would have won. But because they picked [Paxton], they stand to lose the state.”
Jennifer, a 50-year-old Republican, said the same thing.
“It’s between Talarico and someone people think is a crook with bad morals,” she said. “People won’t vote for him. And I think Talarico probably will win it.”
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